What a market reading means
By Pieter Visser · Regulation and Player Safety Writer
What market reading means on this page
A market reading is a calculated estimate of an outcome’s probability, expressed as a percentage. It comes from the current state of the prediction market, not from a forecast by Dexsport or any third party. The number changes as participants place new positions.
This page does not predict results. It shows what the market currently implies.
Readers who got this far usually continue with Why signals are not predictions or Crypto bookmakers and how they differ.
Where the reading comes from
The reading is derived from the balance of positions on both sides of a market. When more value sits on one outcome, the implied probability shifts toward it. When the market is thin, the reading is less stable and can move sharply on small trades.
A reading is not a guarantee. It is a snapshot of collective positioning at the moment you view it.
How to use a reading
Treat the reading as one input among others. It can help you compare your own view of an outcome with the view implied by other participants. A large gap between your estimate and the market reading may mean you see something others do not, or that you are missing information the market has already priced in.
The reading also helps with position sizing. A lower implied probability typically corresponds to a higher potential payout, but also a lower chance of success as judged by the market. The calculator handles the arithmetic for any position you consider.
Read this alongside the terms of whichever platform you use — those terms, not this page, decide what happens to your stake.
What the reading does not tell you
The reading does not tell you what will happen. It does not measure the quality of the teams, athletes, or events involved. It does not account for your personal risk tolerance, your available funds, or how long you can leave a position open.
It also does not reflect activity outside the platform. If relevant information appears elsewhere first, the market reading here may lag until participants act on it.
Platform context for Dutch users
Dexsport operates under an Anjouan licence held by Dexapp LTD. Entry is anonymous through Web3 wallets, with no KYC requirement. The platform lists 85+ coins across 20+ blockchains.
For users in the Netherlands, this means the market reading is the same number you would see anywhere else: it is not adjusted by jurisdiction. Local factors such as tax treatment of any outcome fall outside the reading itself.
Common questions
Does the market reading predict what will happen in a crypto betting market?
No. A market reading is a calculated estimate of an outcome’s probability based on current positioning, not a forecast or guarantee of results.
Why does the market reading change while I am looking at the page?
The reading changes as participants place new positions. When the market is thin, it can move sharply on small trades because there is less balancing value on either side.
Is the market reading different for users in the Netherlands?
No. The reading is the same number you would see anywhere else and is not adjusted by jurisdiction. Local factors such as tax treatment fall outside the reading itself.
Can a market reading help me decide how much to place on a position?
It can be used as one input for position sizing. A lower implied probability typically corresponds to a higher potential payout, but also a lower chance of success as judged by the market.
What should I do if my own estimate is very different from the market reading?
A large gap may mean you see something others do not, or that you are missing information the market has already priced in. The reading is a snapshot of collective positioning, not a signal to act.